diff --git a/system1-factory/api/controllers/dashboardController.js b/system1-factory/api/controllers/dashboardController.js
index a43eaa3..c38de64 100644
--- a/system1-factory/api/controllers/dashboardController.js
+++ b/system1-factory/api/controllers/dashboardController.js
@@ -44,9 +44,11 @@ const DashboardController = {
         remaining: parseFloat(v.remaining_days) || 0
       }));
 
-      // 모든 balance_type 합산
-      const totalDays = vacationRows.reduce((s, v) => s + (parseFloat(v.total_days) || 0), 0);
-      const usedDays = vacationRows.reduce((s, v) => s + (parseFloat(v.used_days) || 0), 0);
+      // 만료되지 않은 balance만 합산 (만료된 이월연차 제외)
+      const today = new Date().toISOString().substring(0, 10);
+      const activeRows = vacationRows.filter(v => !v.expires_at || v.expires_at >= today);
+      const totalDays = activeRows.reduce((s, v) => s + (parseFloat(v.total_days) || 0), 0);
+      const usedDays = activeRows.reduce((s, v) => s + (parseFloat(v.used_days) || 0), 0);
       const remainingDays = totalDays - usedDays;
 
       res.json({
diff --git a/system1-factory/api/models/vacationBalanceModel.js b/system1-factory/api/models/vacationBalanceModel.js
index 230bb25..f6babec 100644
--- a/system1-factory/api/models/vacationBalanceModel.js
+++ b/system1-factory/api/models/vacationBalanceModel.js
@@ -223,6 +223,7 @@ const vacationBalanceModel = {
         INNER JOIN vacation_types vt ON svb.vacation_type_id = vt.id
         WHERE svb.user_id = ? AND svb.year = ?
           AND (svb.total_days - svb.used_days) > 0
+          AND (svb.expires_at IS NULL OR svb.expires_at >= CURDATE())
         ORDER BY vt.priority ASC, FIELD(svb.balance_type, 'CARRY_OVER', 'AUTO', 'MANUAL', 'LONG_SERVICE', 'COMPANY_GRANT')
         FOR UPDATE
       `, [userId, year]);
diff --git a/tksupport/api/models/vacationBalanceModel.js b/tksupport/api/models/vacationBalanceModel.js
index 66fbe7c..12a2c19 100644
--- a/tksupport/api/models/vacationBalanceModel.js
+++ b/tksupport/api/models/vacationBalanceModel.js
@@ -97,7 +97,8 @@ const vacationBalanceModel = {
         const [balances] = await c.query(`
           SELECT id, total_days, used_days, (total_days - used_days) AS remaining_days, balance_type
           FROM sp_vacation_balances
-          WHERE user_id = ? AND year = ? AND (total_days - used_days) > 0 ${excludeClause}
+          WHERE user_id = ? AND year = ? AND (total_days - used_days) > 0
+            AND (expires_at IS NULL OR expires_at >= CURDATE()) ${excludeClause}
           ORDER BY FIELD(balance_type, 'CARRY_OVER', 'AUTO', 'MANUAL', 'LONG_SERVICE', 'COMPANY_GRANT')
           FOR UPDATE
         `, queryParams);
diff --git a/user-management/api/models/vacationModel.js b/user-management/api/models/vacationModel.js
index 833a6d8..f5f7341 100644
--- a/user-management/api/models/vacationModel.js
+++ b/user-management/api/models/vacationModel.js
@@ -131,6 +131,14 @@ async function getBalanceById(id) {
 
 async function createBalance({ user_id, vacation_type_id, year, total_days, used_days, notes, created_by, balance_type, expires_at }) {
   const db = getPool();
+  // CARRY_OVER일 때 expires_at 미설정이면 자동 계산
+  if (balance_type === 'CARRY_OVER' && !expires_at) {
+    const vacationSettingsModel = require('./vacationSettingsModel');
+    const settings = await vacationSettingsModel.loadAsObject();
+    const expiryMonth = parseInt(settings.carry_over_expiry_month) || 2;
+    const lastDay = new Date(year, expiryMonth, 0); // 해당 월 말일
+    expires_at = lastDay.toISOString().substring(0, 10);
+  }
   const [result] = await db.query(
     `INSERT INTO sp_vacation_balances (user_id, vacation_type_id, year, total_days, used_days, notes, created_by, balance_type, expires_at)
      VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)
@@ -160,13 +168,21 @@ async function deleteBalance(id) {
 
 async function bulkUpsertBalances(balances) {
   const db = getPool();
+  const vacationSettingsModel = require('./vacationSettingsModel');
+  const settings = await vacationSettingsModel.loadAsObject();
+  const expiryMonth = parseInt(settings.carry_over_expiry_month) || 2;
   let count = 0;
   for (const b of balances) {
+    let expiresAt = b.expires_at || null;
+    if (b.balance_type === 'CARRY_OVER' && !expiresAt) {
+      const lastDay = new Date(b.year, expiryMonth, 0);
+      expiresAt = lastDay.toISOString().substring(0, 10);
+    }
     await db.query(
       `INSERT INTO sp_vacation_balances (user_id, vacation_type_id, year, total_days, used_days, notes, created_by, balance_type, expires_at)
        VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)
        ON DUPLICATE KEY UPDATE total_days = VALUES(total_days), notes = VALUES(notes)`,
-      [b.user_id, b.vacation_type_id, b.year, b.total_days ?? 0, b.used_days ?? 0, b.notes || null, b.created_by, b.balance_type || 'AUTO', b.expires_at || null]
+      [b.user_id, b.vacation_type_id, b.year, b.total_days ?? 0, b.used_days ?? 0, b.notes || null, b.created_by, b.balance_type || 'AUTO', expiresAt]
     );
     count++;
   }